14.55 Lingfield TEMPURAN
I have narrowed this race down to two horses the one above and SAINT HONORE and have plumped for TEMPURAN.
The reason I have gone for this horse is that he has won over CD when he led and at one point was 12 lengths clear and then was eased down inside the final furlong. If he can repeat that run he will take all the beating here.
I hope that the bounce him out again and he can lead all the way again
He is currently best priced at 13/2
Wednesday, February 22, 2017
Saturday, February 18, 2017
19th February 2017
Well yesterdays runner lost all chance at the start and maybe I should have taken into the account the jockey, but that's is racing and I am sure we will have our moments of good fortune as well.
15.50 Ffos Las BOB FORD (best odds 11/2)
Rebecca Curtis
The trainer does well in Handicap and Handicap Novice Chase races at this track when the horses are ridden by Mr SP Bowen, JM Moore, BJ Geraghty, Tom Scudamore, DN Russell or 3 other jockeys.
12 winners from 17 runners (+45.53 points)
2014 - 2 from 2
2015 - 6 from 6
2016 - 3 from 7 (stable was out of sorts this year but still managed winners at this track)
The stable sent out no runners in the last 14 days until yesterday when they had the following figures: 1225P so it would seem that there is nothing amiss.
Horse Profile (Chase runs)
Not exactly the most consistent of horses and I hope today is a going day.
The horse has only ever won at Chepstow: 11PF and here: 2P11
All wins have come in fields of 1 to 11 runners
3m: 1P
Class 3 and 4: 2P121P1
All wins have come on soft or heavy ground
PACE (in this type of race at this track those that lead or race prominently are favoured)
Pearl Swan,Wadorf Salad and Bob Ford can force the pace but Bob Ford is equally happy to track leaders or race prominently so that is not a concern.
JOCKEY
1 year course form - 7 wins, 5 places from 26 rides (rides this track well)
TRAINER
1 year course form - 10 wins, 8 places from 42 runners
The horse is the top 3 rated on HRB's ratings
The horse is in the top 3 on Geegeez speed ratings
15.50 Ffos Las BOB FORD (best odds 11/2)
Rebecca Curtis
The trainer does well in Handicap and Handicap Novice Chase races at this track when the horses are ridden by Mr SP Bowen, JM Moore, BJ Geraghty, Tom Scudamore, DN Russell or 3 other jockeys.
12 winners from 17 runners (+45.53 points)
2014 - 2 from 2
2015 - 6 from 6
2016 - 3 from 7 (stable was out of sorts this year but still managed winners at this track)
The stable sent out no runners in the last 14 days until yesterday when they had the following figures: 1225P so it would seem that there is nothing amiss.
Horse Profile (Chase runs)
Not exactly the most consistent of horses and I hope today is a going day.
The horse has only ever won at Chepstow: 11PF and here: 2P11
All wins have come in fields of 1 to 11 runners
3m: 1P
Class 3 and 4: 2P121P1
All wins have come on soft or heavy ground
PACE (in this type of race at this track those that lead or race prominently are favoured)
Pearl Swan,Wadorf Salad and Bob Ford can force the pace but Bob Ford is equally happy to track leaders or race prominently so that is not a concern.
JOCKEY
1 year course form - 7 wins, 5 places from 26 rides (rides this track well)
TRAINER
1 year course form - 10 wins, 8 places from 42 runners
The horse is the top 3 rated on HRB's ratings
The horse is in the top 3 on Geegeez speed ratings
COGRY made too many mistakes again especially on the first circuit and only jumped well when booted into the fence - he is clearly talented but his jumping really needs to improve if he has any chance of winning again.
Todays Selection is based on Trainer form
19.45 Kempton BARGAIN BUY
WJ Haggas - last 30 days 4 winners from 6 runners, last 14 days 2 winners from 2 runners.
Trainer Track form - last year 10 winners from 28 selections (5 others have placed)
Horses rested for 60 days+ have a 20% SR
Profile
Does seem better at thi distance : 7f: 121, 1m: 143
The horse is clearly better rested between races: 16 to 30 days: 243, 31 days+: 111
10k races or less: 41112
Polytrack: 1213
PACE - there is plenty of pace in this race which should suit this hold up horse.
DRAW - not ideal in the outside berth but should be able to drop in from this draw.
Todays Selection is based on Trainer form
19.45 Kempton BARGAIN BUY
WJ Haggas - last 30 days 4 winners from 6 runners, last 14 days 2 winners from 2 runners.
Trainer Track form - last year 10 winners from 28 selections (5 others have placed)
Horses rested for 60 days+ have a 20% SR
Profile
Does seem better at thi distance : 7f: 121, 1m: 143
The horse is clearly better rested between races: 16 to 30 days: 243, 31 days+: 111
10k races or less: 41112
Polytrack: 1213
PACE - there is plenty of pace in this race which should suit this hold up horse.
DRAW - not ideal in the outside berth but should be able to drop in from this draw.
Friday, February 17, 2017
17th February 2017
Good Morning
We have no bets at all this week hence the lack of posts - we have also be doing a review of our methods and although we have both been fans of profiles for a long time it would seem that they are not working as well as they used to. So although we will be using profiles they will not be our point of entry.
What we have decided is to use the rating provided by
https://splitsecondratings.blogspot.fr/
We use the top three rated as a way in and then look at profiles, pace, trainer form at track, HRB ratings and speed ratings from Geegeez Gold.
Our first bet this week is
16.15 Sandown COGRY
The horse has had its jumping problems but drops in class here as well as racing in a smaller field and hopefully this will lessen the pressure up on his jumping
Profile
Class 3 races : 11
Soft or Heavy ground: 5 wins from12 runs
1 to 11 runners: 6 wins from 9 runs (probably as less pressure on his jumping) compare this to 0 wins from 14 runs in fields of 12 runners+
RH track: 1
February: 113
Pace of race
Using Geegeez Gold it would seem that this sort of race at this track suits horses that lead or race prominently. I feel that Pete the Feat will go off in front but hopefully COGRY will be race close up to this pace as he has in the past.
Trainer
The trainer has a 23% SR at this track in the last year and a 38% win and place strike rate
HRB rating - 3rd rated
Geegeez Gold - speed rating - not in first 3
We have no bets at all this week hence the lack of posts - we have also be doing a review of our methods and although we have both been fans of profiles for a long time it would seem that they are not working as well as they used to. So although we will be using profiles they will not be our point of entry.
What we have decided is to use the rating provided by
https://splitsecondratings.blogspot.fr/
We use the top three rated as a way in and then look at profiles, pace, trainer form at track, HRB ratings and speed ratings from Geegeez Gold.
Our first bet this week is
16.15 Sandown COGRY
The horse has had its jumping problems but drops in class here as well as racing in a smaller field and hopefully this will lessen the pressure up on his jumping
Profile
Class 3 races : 11
Soft or Heavy ground: 5 wins from12 runs
1 to 11 runners: 6 wins from 9 runs (probably as less pressure on his jumping) compare this to 0 wins from 14 runs in fields of 12 runners+
RH track: 1
February: 113
Pace of race
Using Geegeez Gold it would seem that this sort of race at this track suits horses that lead or race prominently. I feel that Pete the Feat will go off in front but hopefully COGRY will be race close up to this pace as he has in the past.
Trainer
The trainer has a 23% SR at this track in the last year and a 38% win and place strike rate
HRB rating - 3rd rated
Geegeez Gold - speed rating - not in first 3
Sunday, February 12, 2017
12th February (Update 2)
15.40 Sedgefield TRIPTICO
This former decent chaser is racing in a Class 5 event today and if he retains a semblance of his former ability he must take all the beating here. He did show that he retained some of that ability on not he first run for the yard and we hope that he comes on for that run and does not bounce.
When racing on heavy ground: 214
When racing in Class5 and below: 31
2 of his 3 wins have come in February and March
2 of his 3 wins wins have come when racing 16 to 60 days after last race.
Let's have an each way bet at 7/1 with Bet365
This former decent chaser is racing in a Class 5 event today and if he retains a semblance of his former ability he must take all the beating here. He did show that he retained some of that ability on not he first run for the yard and we hope that he comes on for that run and does not bounce.
When racing on heavy ground: 214
When racing in Class5 and below: 31
2 of his 3 wins have come in February and March
2 of his 3 wins wins have come when racing 16 to 60 days after last race.
Let's have an each way bet at 7/1 with Bet365
12th February (Update1)
LOUGHALDER ran well for a long way yesterday and David feels that like he said yesterday that if we see the horse running in a Class 5 handicap in the next few weeks then he should be backed. The less said the better about the other selection as it ran no sort of race.
We are going to have losing runs backing the price range of selections that we feel offer value but one winner can make a huge difference when they are priced at 14/1 or higher. We are not going to change our approach as we feel that our methodology is sound and a winner is just around the corner.
Today again we have some long priced selections again.
15.20 Exeter The Veterans Chase
HARRY TOPPER
This horse was once touted for the Gold Cup and has been running in far better races than this, in fact the last time he ran belowListed company was in 2013.
I feel that this drop in grade and return to this track should give us a good run for our money.
When racing at Exeter: 11,
When racing in Class 2 races and below: 111151
He has won 4 from 6 when racing at 2m
All wins have come in fields of 15 runners or less
He has won 4 from 7 on RH tracks.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Ladbrokes
BUYWISE
What am I doing putting this horse up again, well I have been waiting for it to return to a RH track which I thought would never happen so here we go again. I do feel that this step up in trip may be what is needed or it is just that I am grasping at straws.
When racing on a RH track: 11117
When racing in February: 11
The horse has won the only time it was returned to the track within 15 days.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Corals
14.50 Exeter REVE DE SIVOLA
The horse has yet to race below a Graded races over hurdles and this represents a huge drop in class and although he is now 12 he does retain some ability. I hope that he manages to get to the front today as BALLYMALIN also like to run from the front and I presume we may soon know our fate but at the price he is he is worth putting up as a selection.
The horse has won 4 from 8 on a RH track
The horse is clearly at its best on soft or heavy ground
The horse has won 3 from 8 when racing off a mark of 141 to 150
When racing in February: 1
Let's have an each way bet at 20/1 with BET365
We are going to have losing runs backing the price range of selections that we feel offer value but one winner can make a huge difference when they are priced at 14/1 or higher. We are not going to change our approach as we feel that our methodology is sound and a winner is just around the corner.
Today again we have some long priced selections again.
15.20 Exeter The Veterans Chase
HARRY TOPPER
This horse was once touted for the Gold Cup and has been running in far better races than this, in fact the last time he ran belowListed company was in 2013.
I feel that this drop in grade and return to this track should give us a good run for our money.
When racing at Exeter: 11,
When racing in Class 2 races and below: 111151
He has won 4 from 6 when racing at 2m
All wins have come in fields of 15 runners or less
He has won 4 from 7 on RH tracks.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Ladbrokes
BUYWISE
What am I doing putting this horse up again, well I have been waiting for it to return to a RH track which I thought would never happen so here we go again. I do feel that this step up in trip may be what is needed or it is just that I am grasping at straws.
When racing on a RH track: 11117
When racing in February: 11
The horse has won the only time it was returned to the track within 15 days.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Corals
14.50 Exeter REVE DE SIVOLA
The horse has yet to race below a Graded races over hurdles and this represents a huge drop in class and although he is now 12 he does retain some ability. I hope that he manages to get to the front today as BALLYMALIN also like to run from the front and I presume we may soon know our fate but at the price he is he is worth putting up as a selection.
The horse has won 4 from 8 on a RH track
The horse is clearly at its best on soft or heavy ground
The horse has won 3 from 8 when racing off a mark of 141 to 150
When racing in February: 1
Let's have an each way bet at 20/1 with BET365
Friday, February 10, 2017
11th February 2017 (update 1)
David has two horses for us today and both are longer odds hopefully they run as well as RUSSE BLANC and GABREY CHEVERTIN.
This is our 1st update as we are still looking at another couple of races. If we have anything our second update will be later this morning
14.20 Uttoxeter LOUGHALDER
The reasons behind picking this horse are two-fold.
1. For some bizarre reason he does seem to run well on his 5th start of the season. His record since going chasing on this start reads: 3111. Last year he was pulled up on his two previous starts and won at 16/1 next time out and he follows the same pattern this year as he has been pulled up on his last two starts.
2. His record at this track In handicap chase races reads: 121
The horse has won 5 from11 when racing in fields of 8 to 11 runners and Charlie Poste has 7 wins from 28 rides.
He will handle the ground conditions and he usually comegood at around this time of year
It may be that he is regressing but if he was agressively ridden ad could jump off in front I would feel that he was trying today. If it is not his day today we will be keeping an eye on him especially if dropped back to a Class 5 chase. However at today's odds and his record on his 5th start and at this track he is worth an investment.
Let's have an each way bet on the horse at 25/1 with BetVictor.
16.35 Uttoxeter CALCULATED RISK
The horse went close at Ffos Las under similar conditions and I expect a good run from him today especially as the trainer does seem to be in form (unlike a lot of this field)
He clearly handles this ground having won 2 from 6 starts
The horse has won 2 from 7 when racing at 2m4f
The horse has dropped to a really low mark and does seem to come good at this time of year as well as the fact that he goes well on track that are slightly undulating or undulating.
Also Lizzie Kelly comes here for this ride after two rides at Warwick.
Let's have an each way bet at 10/1 with BetVictor
This is our 1st update as we are still looking at another couple of races. If we have anything our second update will be later this morning
14.20 Uttoxeter LOUGHALDER
The reasons behind picking this horse are two-fold.
1. For some bizarre reason he does seem to run well on his 5th start of the season. His record since going chasing on this start reads: 3111. Last year he was pulled up on his two previous starts and won at 16/1 next time out and he follows the same pattern this year as he has been pulled up on his last two starts.
2. His record at this track In handicap chase races reads: 121
The horse has won 5 from11 when racing in fields of 8 to 11 runners and Charlie Poste has 7 wins from 28 rides.
He will handle the ground conditions and he usually comegood at around this time of year
It may be that he is regressing but if he was agressively ridden ad could jump off in front I would feel that he was trying today. If it is not his day today we will be keeping an eye on him especially if dropped back to a Class 5 chase. However at today's odds and his record on his 5th start and at this track he is worth an investment.
Let's have an each way bet on the horse at 25/1 with BetVictor.
16.35 Uttoxeter CALCULATED RISK
The horse went close at Ffos Las under similar conditions and I expect a good run from him today especially as the trainer does seem to be in form (unlike a lot of this field)
He clearly handles this ground having won 2 from 6 starts
The horse has won 2 from 7 when racing at 2m4f
The horse has dropped to a really low mark and does seem to come good at this time of year as well as the fact that he goes well on track that are slightly undulating or undulating.
Also Lizzie Kelly comes here for this ride after two rides at Warwick.
Let's have an each way bet at 10/1 with BetVictor
10th February 2017 (Update 2)
15.10 Kempton GAVREY CHAMBERTIN
The horse does not run in Class 3 races that often but has a very good record in them. David would have been happier had this been a hurdle race but at these odds he is willing to risk a small bet on the horse.
In Class 3 races and below he has won 8 from10 starts and if we only look at chase races with 11 runners or less and when he is ridden by T Scudamore (9 from19) his record reads: 11
Flat tracks he is 4 from7 and on RH tracks he is 2 from 5
David feels that if he can get to the front he may have a chance in this race.
Let's have a SMALLeach way bet at 18/1 Bet365
The horse does not run in Class 3 races that often but has a very good record in them. David would have been happier had this been a hurdle race but at these odds he is willing to risk a small bet on the horse.
In Class 3 races and below he has won 8 from10 starts and if we only look at chase races with 11 runners or less and when he is ridden by T Scudamore (9 from19) his record reads: 11
Flat tracks he is 4 from7 and on RH tracks he is 2 from 5
David feels that if he can get to the front he may have a chance in this race.
Let's have a SMALLeach way bet at 18/1 Bet365
Thursday, February 9, 2017
10th February 2017 (update 1)
We have a couple of selections at the moment and David is having a look at the 15.10 Kempton this morning, so if he can find anything I will be posting before midday.
15.20 Bangor SAROQUE
Ran ok last time out and the way he was staying on the time before at this track in this grade over 3m gives me hope that he can get into the winners enclosure over 5f further.
Both of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground and his record in Class 4 chases reads: 23.
When racing off a rating of 111 to 120: 13133
Let's have and each way bet at 11/2 with Bet365
WJ GREATEX - Bangor (2013 onwards)
The trainer has a superb record at this track in NH Flat races and Handicap Chase races, when the horse had either No Previous run or last time out finished in the first 5 home.
The horse must be ridden by G Sheehan or 3 other jockeys.
7 winners from 8 runners (+14.87)
16.25 Bangor STORM WARNING
Let's have a win bet at 15/8 Bet365
15.20 Bangor SAROQUE
Ran ok last time out and the way he was staying on the time before at this track in this grade over 3m gives me hope that he can get into the winners enclosure over 5f further.
Both of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground and his record in Class 4 chases reads: 23.
When racing off a rating of 111 to 120: 13133
Let's have and each way bet at 11/2 with Bet365
WJ GREATEX - Bangor (2013 onwards)
The trainer has a superb record at this track in NH Flat races and Handicap Chase races, when the horse had either No Previous run or last time out finished in the first 5 home.
The horse must be ridden by G Sheehan or 3 other jockeys.
7 winners from 8 runners (+14.87)
16.25 Bangor STORM WARNING
Let's have a win bet at 15/8 Bet365
9th February 2017
We had some decent runs for our money yesterday and we were pleased with the selections we made.
We only have some trial selections today
D JACOB - A KING 52% SR
14.00 Huntingdon MESSIRE DES OBEAUX
Mr JJ CODD - G ELLIOTT 34% SR
16.55 Thurles BACK BAR
That's all for today back tomorrow
We only have some trial selections today
D JACOB - A KING 52% SR
14.00 Huntingdon MESSIRE DES OBEAUX
Mr JJ CODD - G ELLIOTT 34% SR
16.55 Thurles BACK BAR
That's all for today back tomorrow
Wednesday, February 8, 2017
Final Update for 8th February
15.30 Chelmsford VOLUNTEER POINT
The horse we feel will be suited to a return to a small field and we feel that you can ignore his run at Newcastle last time as he has never been seen at his best on a straight track. He goes well at this track and this is his class of race.
Below profiles are based on AW racing only
1 to 7 runners: 14111
Class 2 races worth less than 20k: 1131
Chelmsford: 2113
LH bend: 5 wins from 9 starts
16 to 30 days: 1153
Let's have an each way bet on the horse at 11/1 Bet365
The horse we feel will be suited to a return to a small field and we feel that you can ignore his run at Newcastle last time as he has never been seen at his best on a straight track. He goes well at this track and this is his class of race.
Below profiles are based on AW racing only
1 to 7 runners: 14111
Class 2 races worth less than 20k: 1131
Chelmsford: 2113
LH bend: 5 wins from 9 starts
16 to 30 days: 1153
Let's have an each way bet on the horse at 11/1 Bet365
Tuesday, February 7, 2017
After the Calm the Storm
Having had a few blank days recently the racing has improved today and we have a few value bets today (well in our opinion anyway). There may be one more selection from Chelmsford but I am waiting on David for that one so will be back later, no later than midday.
We will start with the horse that we put up last night.
17.50 Kempton LIZZIES DREAM
The horse does seem to like the Polytrack surface having won 4 from 5 races on it, what we can see that since Wolves change to Tapeta he has never won at that track.
He has won both starts at this track but it was his record in Class 7 races that caught my eye: 51111
When racing 16 to 30 days after last race: 191
When acing in February: 161
15.10 Ludlow ALTIEPIX
The horse travelled really well last time out at Chepstow and looked the winner 3 out, but he seemed to run out of steam, as though the race was needed, and he should come on for that run. It is interesting that she has dropped the horse back in distance today
All of his wins have come on a RH track so the return to this direction is a plus.
Let's have an each way bet on the horse at 11/2 Bet365
16.30 Carlisle RUSSE BLANC
The horse has finally come down in the ratings and is only 2lb higher than winning at Warwick last season. The ground is ideal and he looks as though this may be his race for the season. The drop in grade should also help.
His record in handicap races at this track reads: 321
He has a small field today which also suits as he is 4 from 14 in fields of 11 runners or less and 1 from15 in fields of 12 runners+.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Bet365
We will start with the horse that we put up last night.
17.50 Kempton LIZZIES DREAM
The horse does seem to like the Polytrack surface having won 4 from 5 races on it, what we can see that since Wolves change to Tapeta he has never won at that track.
He has won both starts at this track but it was his record in Class 7 races that caught my eye: 51111
When racing 16 to 30 days after last race: 191
When acing in February: 161
15.10 Ludlow ALTIEPIX
The horse travelled really well last time out at Chepstow and looked the winner 3 out, but he seemed to run out of steam, as though the race was needed, and he should come on for that run. It is interesting that she has dropped the horse back in distance today
All of his wins have come on a RH track so the return to this direction is a plus.
Let's have an each way bet on the horse at 11/2 Bet365
16.30 Carlisle RUSSE BLANC
The horse has finally come down in the ratings and is only 2lb higher than winning at Warwick last season. The ground is ideal and he looks as though this may be his race for the season. The drop in grade should also help.
His record in handicap races at this track reads: 321
He has a small field today which also suits as he is 4 from 14 in fields of 11 runners or less and 1 from15 in fields of 12 runners+.
Let's have an each way bet at 12/1 with Bet365
Early Doors for tomorrow
We have one tonight that is been backed and therefore we will put it up now and give reasoning tomorrow
17.50 Kempton LIZZYS DREAM
Let's have a win bet at 9/2 William Hill
17.50 Kempton LIZZYS DREAM
Let's have a win bet at 9/2 William Hill
Monday, February 6, 2017
Another Quiet Day
Well what can you say another very poor days racing and although we have had a good look we can find nothing of any interest.
There are also no Trail selection as there are no trainer and jockey combinations with over a 30% strike rate.
We will be back tomorrow
There are also no Trail selection as there are no trainer and jockey combinations with over a 30% strike rate.
We will be back tomorrow
Quiet Day
My god the racing is of a wry poor standard today and we can find nothing of any interest at all.
There are no Trail selections today as the only possible qualifier is now a non runner
We will be back tomorrow
There are no Trail selections today as the only possible qualifier is now a non runner
We will be back tomorrow
Sunday, February 5, 2017
5th February 2017
The racing at Mussleburgh and Punchestown is of a decent standard today but we can find nothing tempting us today.
We have decided to take a more cautious approach looking for strong profiles that offer value i.e. There will be no horses in the profiles section that will be less than 4/1.
There are no TRIAL selections today either but we have drawn up some rules that we are going to follow
1. We will only be looking at SR of 30%+
2. If there are more than one selection in the race this race will be avoided
3. The trainer must have had a winner in the last 14 days.
We will not be looking at adding many more rules than this as we do like simple systems
Enjoy your Sunday and we will be back tomorrow
We have decided to take a more cautious approach looking for strong profiles that offer value i.e. There will be no horses in the profiles section that will be less than 4/1.
There are no TRIAL selections today either but we have drawn up some rules that we are going to follow
1. We will only be looking at SR of 30%+
2. If there are more than one selection in the race this race will be avoided
3. The trainer must have had a winner in the last 14 days.
We will not be looking at adding many more rules than this as we do like simple systems
Enjoy your Sunday and we will be back tomorrow
Friday, February 3, 2017
14.05 Mussleburgh ALVARADO
The horse will have to run well in this race to get his handicap mark so he can once again have a tilt at the Grand National. I do feel he will enjoy this step back up in trip and although in some quarters there are concerns about this tight track his record here reads: 212.
Good ground: 11PU51, 4m+: 244, RH track: 5 wins from11 runs
Let's have a each way bet at 6/1 with Bet365
15.35 Sandown OTAGO TRAIL
The horse is very classy at his best as he showed when beating Bristol De Mai and then finishing second behind the same horse in the Peter Marsh at Haydock. Will love this ground and if he can get an easy lead I feel he can run these ragged.
All wins have come on soft or heavy ground, RH track:11321, Listed to Class 3: 13111, best on tracks with undulations.
Let's have a win bet at 9/2 with Bet365
The trail did very well yesterday with two winners. There is one race with two qualifiers today and I am not sure whether we should use this type of race, but we can always review the rules as we go along.
TRIAL - Trainer/Jockey combination
M Carberry/ B Ellison 40%SR. 15.15 Mussleburgh DORMINADA
BJ Geraghty/ H Fry 40% SR 15.00 Sandown BEHIND TIME
D Jacob/NA Twiston Davies 38%SR 15.00 Sandown EL TERREMOTO
A Kirby/ E Williams 37% SR 13.25 Lingfield BARON FLYER and 16.15 Lingfield APPLE DAYS
BJ Geraghty/P Hobbs 33% SR 13.15 Sandown BOLD HENRY
3rd February 2017
We have nothing of any interest today but we are starting a new trail looking at Jockey and Trainer strike rate over the last 2 years. These stats can easily be found on HorseRaceBase using the shortcuts.
As a trail I would be parting with any cash rather paper trading for the next month, then we will se if it is worth following or whether it will be assigned to the rubbish bin.
TRAIL - Trainer/Jockey Combinations
Mr R Chapman/K Slack - 67%SR
16.25 Catterick BELL WEIR
Adam Kirby/I Williams - 35%SR
16.40 Lingfield BURNSIDE
Robert Winston/M Herrington - 30% SR
14.30 Lingfield SOPHISTICATED HEIR
Miss G Andrews/Mrs P Sly - 30%SR
15.20 Catterick ACTINPIECES
As a trail I would be parting with any cash rather paper trading for the next month, then we will se if it is worth following or whether it will be assigned to the rubbish bin.
TRAIL - Trainer/Jockey Combinations
Mr R Chapman/K Slack - 67%SR
16.25 Catterick BELL WEIR
Adam Kirby/I Williams - 35%SR
16.40 Lingfield BURNSIDE
Robert Winston/M Herrington - 30% SR
14.30 Lingfield SOPHISTICATED HEIR
Miss G Andrews/Mrs P Sly - 30%SR
15.20 Catterick ACTINPIECES
Thursday, February 2, 2017
2nd February 2107
Quite a few to get through today with some interesting stats bets as well
15.45 Wincanton
BENNYS WELL
Loves heavy ground (6 wins from 8 runs) and really goes well at this track as well (11P), is interesting dropped in grade today and 7 of his 8 wins have come in fields of 1 to 11 runners has only won once in bigger fields.
Let's have an each way bet at 10/1 with Corals.
VIC DE TOUZAINE
Another from the Williams yard and looked to be improving last year and finished last year with a good one in this grade on heavy ground at Leicester.
Let's have an each way bet at 5/1 with Corals
15.55 Towcester TRY IT SOMETIMES
The horse could win what will be an attritional race and was the last one standing when he won on this type of ground at Uttoxeter. He has raced at this track before and finished second. The booking of Sean Bowen catches the eye and all of his wins have come when racing 16 to 30 days after last race.
Let's have a win bet at 4/1 with BET365
The two interesting stats for today are
T LACEY - 1st time out in a handicap hurdle since 2014 he has had 4 wins from 9 runners (4125P3111)
He has one runner today and that is in the 14.45 Towcester PINNACLE PETER
He is worth risking a small each way bet at 12/1 generally
The other interesting stat is DM SIMCOCK with runners at Chelmsford that are racing at 1m5.5f or more and are racing at between 4f less or 3f more than their previous run.
4 winners from 5 runners (31111)
One such runner tonight 19.30 Chelmsford TETRADRACHM
Let's have a win bet at 9/2 Stan James
14.25 Lingfield DORMOUSE
I would have been happier putting this horse up to day had he not had such an off day at Leicester last week however looking at his profile and the fact the stable have brought him out so quickly would suggest that there was nothing seriously wrong.
The horse goes well on undulating tracks in general but really loves this unique track and his record here reads: 2111
He also has a great record on heavy going having won 5 times from 11 starts
9 of his 10 wins have come in Class 4 races
Noel Fehily has only ridden the horse twice but his record reads: 31
The horse when returned to the track between 6 and 10 days has won 3 from 11 starts
Let's have a win bet at 4/1 with William Hill
15.45 Wincanton
BENNYS WELL
Loves heavy ground (6 wins from 8 runs) and really goes well at this track as well (11P), is interesting dropped in grade today and 7 of his 8 wins have come in fields of 1 to 11 runners has only won once in bigger fields.
Let's have an each way bet at 10/1 with Corals.
VIC DE TOUZAINE
Another from the Williams yard and looked to be improving last year and finished last year with a good one in this grade on heavy ground at Leicester.
Let's have an each way bet at 5/1 with Corals
15.55 Towcester TRY IT SOMETIMES
The horse could win what will be an attritional race and was the last one standing when he won on this type of ground at Uttoxeter. He has raced at this track before and finished second. The booking of Sean Bowen catches the eye and all of his wins have come when racing 16 to 30 days after last race.
Let's have a win bet at 4/1 with BET365
The two interesting stats for today are
T LACEY - 1st time out in a handicap hurdle since 2014 he has had 4 wins from 9 runners (4125P3111)
He has one runner today and that is in the 14.45 Towcester PINNACLE PETER
He is worth risking a small each way bet at 12/1 generally
The other interesting stat is DM SIMCOCK with runners at Chelmsford that are racing at 1m5.5f or more and are racing at between 4f less or 3f more than their previous run.
4 winners from 5 runners (31111)
One such runner tonight 19.30 Chelmsford TETRADRACHM
Let's have a win bet at 9/2 Stan James
14.25 Lingfield DORMOUSE
I would have been happier putting this horse up to day had he not had such an off day at Leicester last week however looking at his profile and the fact the stable have brought him out so quickly would suggest that there was nothing seriously wrong.
The horse goes well on undulating tracks in general but really loves this unique track and his record here reads: 2111
He also has a great record on heavy going having won 5 times from 11 starts
9 of his 10 wins have come in Class 4 races
Noel Fehily has only ridden the horse twice but his record reads: 31
The horse when returned to the track between 6 and 10 days has won 3 from 11 starts
Let's have a win bet at 4/1 with William Hill
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
1st February 2017
Well we spent ages looking at 15.30 at Hereford and whilst both of us could make a case for several horses we could not narrow it down from the following 4 horses
AACHEN - will love this ground but will need to bounce back from its last 3 runs
MOUNTAINOUS - another that will love this ground and did runner better than finishing position suggests last time
STREETS OF PROMISE - if fully wound up for this would have an astounding chance and is a promising stayer.
GOODTOKNOW will like this RH track and ran a cracking race last time out however his price is just to short
We have decided to skip the race today and we cannot find anything else of any interest so back tomorrow
AACHEN - will love this ground but will need to bounce back from its last 3 runs
MOUNTAINOUS - another that will love this ground and did runner better than finishing position suggests last time
STREETS OF PROMISE - if fully wound up for this would have an astounding chance and is a promising stayer.
GOODTOKNOW will like this RH track and ran a cracking race last time out however his price is just to short
We have decided to skip the race today and we cannot find anything else of any interest so back tomorrow
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)